Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 25.521648 29.011763 32.767928 37.106580 41.975462 47.266220 53.446407
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 20.212009 24.924493 30.381806 37.151237 45.304589 54.789022 66.638354
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 17.296366 22.475794 28.761847 36.920309 47.193785 59.663373 75.904511
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 15.295728 20.815373 27.796018 37.221186 49.556903 65.088505 86.053225
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 14.107718 19.975089 27.661669 38.395069 52.909737 71.757676 97.971991
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 12.586546 18.496745 26.498930 38.028637 54.099600 75.571162 106.267301
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.819432 16.479190 24.388443 36.130345 52.975186 76.095443 110.017169
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.153939 15.959521 24.300405 37.010621 55.706576 81.973179 121.383251
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.592448 15.529409 24.283546 37.953015 58.533941 88.081491 133.341582
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.800211 14.668922 23.546732 37.745401 59.615914 91.684526 141.804921
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.026614 13.764243 22.661644 37.224655 60.153773 94.462067 149.125147
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.494713 13.198555 22.251178 37.391468 61.720595 98.813152 158.973690
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.080462 12.804659 22.102031 37.988549 64.037480 104.494571 171.272383
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.631267 12.313313 21.756340 38.237531 65.805035 109.407660 182.625650
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.126711 11.678068 21.115435 37.934561 66.623085 112.815749 191.697509
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.780916 11.293568 20.866666 38.264630 68.487174 117.964656 203.784499
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 5.605945 11.203829 21.117630 39.461910 71.866569 125.728846 220.495210
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 5.200798 10.649654 20.503369 39.088315 72.505826 128.950977 229.765575
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 4.605541 9.680987 19.068174 37.140004 70.257569 127.162928 230.438843
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 4.453789 9.565037 19.193851 38.043386 73.123448 134.244694 246.618146
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 4.319096 9.471292 19.351953 39.010146 76.144643 141.718017 263.788593
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 4.047510 9.075755 18.903892 38.797177 76.974964 145.353738 274.334513
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 3.759967 8.622639 18.310865 38.262915 77.164978 147.835685 282.902527